A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
